Social vulnerability assessment for mitigation of local earthquake risk in Los Angeles County     

Gabriela R. Noriega  Lisa Grant Ludwig 《Natural Hazards》2012,64(2):1341-1355

Comprehensive hazard mitigation involves (1) understanding natural systems, (2) assessment of interactions within and between social systems and the built environment, and (3) understanding geo-spatial processes. To achieve this, local emergency managers must recognize variability in vulnerable populations exposed to hazards and develop place-based emergency plans accordingly. In this study, we assess whether cities in Los Angeles County are subject to disproportionally greater earthquake losses modeled from a M7.8 earthquake on the San Andreas fault. Furthermore, we analyze whether the variation in demographic and socioeconomic characteristics across cities is associated with the earthquake losses. We were able to explain 23.2?% of variance in economic losses by looking at the percentage of minority residents, income, and renter residents in a city [F(3,84)?=?8.47; p?<?.001]. Cities with primarily minority residents had greater economic losses when compared to cities with primarily White residents (b?=?1.01; p?<?.001). When looking at the association between demographic predictors and potential casualty rate, the percentage of Hispanic residents was positively associated with the potential casualty rate. We argue that knowledge of the relationship between earthquake hazard and the demographic characteristics of people in the area at risk is essential to mitigate the local impact from earthquakes. In other words, we apply social vulnerability assessment as part of a comprehensive risk management framework to accelerate recovery after an event. Local policy makers and the private sector can use this approach to gain a better understanding of a city??s social vulnerability and adapt their preparedness efforts accordingly.  相似文献   

Partial Migration Across Populations of White Perch (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Morone americana</Emphasis>): A Flexible Life History Strategy in a Variable Estuarine Environment     

Lisa A. Kerr  David H. Secor 《Estuaries and Coasts》2012,35(1):227-236

We evaluated the prevalence of partial migration, coexisting resident and migratory life history types, within six white perch (Morone americana) populations in sub-estuaries (Upper Bay, and Potomac, Choptank, Nanticoke, James, and York Rivers) of the Chesapeake Bay. Otolith stable isotope (δ¹⁸O) values were used to resolve fish habitat use along an estuarine salinity gradient and define resident or migratory behavior. The majority of adults within Upper Bay and Potomac River populations were resident, whereas individuals from the Choptank, Nanticoke, James, and York Rivers were predominantly migratory. Beyond population differences, large interannual variability in life history types was observed, likely due to differences in estuarine conditions that influence growth rate of individuals (e.g., temperature, zooplankton density). Because we observed partial migration in all study populations, we suggest that this trait is characteristic of this species, permitting plastic responses to variation in the estuarine environment.  相似文献   

A climate-isotope regression model with seasonally-varying and time-integrated relationships     

Matt J. Fischer  Lisa M. Baldini 《Climate Dynamics》2011,37(11-12):2235-2251

This study investigates multivariable and multiscalar climate-??¹⁸O relationships, through the use of statistical modeling and simulation. Three simulations, of increasing complexity, are used to generate time series of daily precipitation ??¹⁸O. The first simulation uses a simple local predictor (daily rainfall amount). The second simulation uses the same local predictor plus a larger-scale climate variable (a daily NAO index), and the third simulation uses the same local and non-local predictors, but with varying seasonal effect. Since these simulations all operate at the daily timescale, they can be used to investigate the climate-??¹⁸O patterns that arise at daily-interannual timescales. These simulations show that (1) complex links exist between climate-??¹⁸O relationships at different timescales, (2) the short-timescale relationships that underlie monthly predictor-??¹⁸O relationships can be recovered using only monthly ??¹⁸O and daily predictor variables, (3) a comparison between the simulations and observational data can elucidate the physical processes at work. The regression models developed are then applied to a 2-year dataset of monthly precipitation ??¹⁸O from Dublin and compared with event-scale data from the same site, which illustrates that the methodology works, and that the third regression model explains about 55% of the variance in ??¹⁸O at this site. The methodology introduced here can potentially be applied to historic monthly ??¹⁸O data, to better understand how multiple-integrated influences at short timescales give rise to climate-??¹⁸O patterns at monthly-interannual timescales.  相似文献   

The use of plastic debris as nesting material by a colonial seabird and associated entanglement mortality     

Votier SC  Archibald K  Morgan G  Morgan L 《Marine pollution bulletin》2011,62(1):168-172

Entanglement with plastic debris is a major cause of mortality in marine taxa, but the population-level consequences are unknown. Some seabirds collect marine debris for nesting material, which may lead to entanglement. Here we investigate the use of plastics as nesting material by northern gannets Morus bassanus and assess the associated levels of mortality. On average gannet nests contained 469.91 g (range 0-1293 g) of plastic, equating to an estimated colony total of 18.46 tonnes (range 4.47-42.34 tonnes). The majority of nesting material was synthetic rope, which appears to be used preferentially. On average 62.85 ± 26.84 (range minima 33-109) birds were entangled each year, totalling 525 individuals over eight years, the majority of which were nestlings. Although mortality rates are high, they are unlikely to have population-level effects. The use of synthetic fibres as nesting material is a common strategy among seabirds, but the impacts of entanglement warrants further investigation.  相似文献   

The effect of methanogenesis on the geochemistry of low temperature water–Fe0–basalt reactions     

Lisa E. Mayhew  Graham E. Lau  Tom M. McCollom  Sam Webb  Alexis S. Templeton 《Applied Geochemistry》2011

Hydrogen gas produced in the subsurface from the hydration of mafic rocks is known to be a major energy source for chemolithotrophic life in extreme environments such as hydrothermal vents. The possibility that in situ anaerobic microorganisms present in the deep subsurface are sustained by low temperature H₂-generating water–rock reactions taking place around them is being investigated. Whether the growth and activity of H₂-utilizing microbes directly influences aqueous geochemistry, rates of mineral dissolution, and the chemical composition of the alteration products is also being quantitatively evaluated.To explore how microorganisms are affected by water–rock reactions, and how their activity may in turn affect reaction progress, laboratory experiments have been conducted to monitor the growth of a methanogenic Archaea in the presence of H_2(g) produced from low temperature water–Fe⁰–basalt reactions. In these systems, the conversion of Fe(II) to Fe(III) and subsequent hydrolysis of water is responsible for the production of H_2(g). To characterize key components of the geochemical system, time series measurements of H₂ and CH₄ gas concentrations, Fe and Si aqueous concentrations, and spatially resolved synchrotron-based analyses of microscale Fe distribution and speciation were conducted. Culture experiments were compared with an abiotic control to document changes in the geochemistry both in the presence and absence of the methanogen.In the control abiotic batch experiment, H₂ was continuously produced, until the headspace became saturated, while in the biotic experiments, microbial consumption of H₂ for methanogenesis draws H₂ down and produces CH₄. Purging the headspace gas reinitiates H₂ and CH₄ production in abiotic and culture experiments, respectively. Mass balance analysis of the amount of CH₄ produced suggests that the total H₂ production in microbial experiments does not exceed the abiotic experiment. Soluble Si concentrations, while buffered to relatively constant values, were higher in culture experiments than the abiotic control.Iron_(aq) concentrations appear to respond to perturbations of H₂ and CH₄ gas concentrations in both culture experiments and the abiotic control. A pulse of Fe preceded the rise in either H₂ or CH₄ production, and as the gas concentrations increased the Fe_(aq) decreased. Iron-bearing mineral assemblages change with increasing reaction time and mineral assemblages vary between culture experiments and the abiotic control. These geochemical trends suggest that there are different reaction paths between the culture experiments and the abiotic control.The hydration of mafic rocks is a common geologic reaction and one that has taken place on Earth for the majority of its history and is postulated to occur on Mars. These reactions are important because of their effect on the rheology and geochemistry of the ocean crust. While most often studied at temperatures of ～250 °C, this work suggests that at lower temperatures microorganisms may have a profound effect on what has long been thought to be solely an abiotic reaction, and may produce diagnostic mineral assemblages that will be preserved in the geological record.  相似文献   

Particle fluxes in San Pedro Basin, California: A four-year record of sedimentation and physical forcing     

Lisa E. Collins  William BerelsonDouglas E. Hammond  Angela Knapp  Richard SchwartzDoug Capone 《Deep Sea Research Part I: Oceanographic Research Papers》2011,58(8):898-914

Moored sediment traps were deployed from January 2004 through December 2007 at depths of 550 and 800 m in San Pedro Basin (SPB), CA (33°33.0′N, 118°26.5′W). Additionally, floating sediment traps were deployed at 100 and 200 m for periods of 12-24 h during spring 2005, fall 2007, and spring 2008. Average annual fluxes of mass, particulate organic carbon (POC), ??¹³C_org, particulate organic nitrogen (PON), ??¹⁵N-PON, biogenic silica (bSiO₂), calcium carbonate (CaCO₃), and detrital material (non-biogenic) were coupled with climate records and used to examine sedimentation patterns, vertical flux variability, and organic matter sources to this coastal region. Annual average flux values were determined by binning data by month and averaging the monthly averages. The average annual fluxes to 550 m were 516±42 mg/m² d for mass (sdom of the monthly averages, n=117), 3.18±0.26 mmol C/m² d for POC (n=111), 0.70±0.05 mmol/m² d for CaCO₃ (n=110), 1.31±0.21 mmol/m² d for bSiO₂ (n=115), and 0.35±0.03 mmol/m² d for PON (n=111). Fluxes to 800 and to 550 m were similar, within 10%. Annual average values of ??¹³C_org at 550 m were −21.8±0.2‰ (n=108), and ??¹⁵N averages were 8.9±0.2‰ (n=95). The timing of both high and low flux particle collection was synchronous between the two traps. Given the frequency of trap cup rotation (4-11 days), this argues for particle settling rates ≥83 m/d for both high and low flux periods. The moored traps were deployed over one of the wettest (2004-2005, 74.6 cm rainfall) and driest (2006-2007, 6.6 cm) rain years on record. There was poor correlation (Pearson's correlation coefficient, 95% confidence interval) of detrital mass flux with: C_org/N ratio (r=0.10, p=0.16); ??¹⁵N (r=−0.19, p=0.02); and rainfall (r=0.5, p=0.43), suggesting that runoff does not immediately cause increases in particle fluxes 15 km offshore. ??¹³C_org values suggest that most POC falling to the basin floor is marine derived. Coherence between satellite-derived chlorophyll a records from the trap location (±9 km² resolution) and SST data indicates that productivity and export occurs within a few days of upwelling and both of these parameters are reasonable predictors of POC export, with a time lag of a few days to 2 weeks (with no time lag—SeaWiFS chlorophyll a and POC flux, r=0.25, p=0.0014; chlorophyll a and bSiO₂ flux, r=0.28, p=0.0002).  相似文献   

利用树轮资料重建青海都兰地区过去1835年的气候变化   总被引：26，自引：6，他引：20  

焦克勤  王纯足  韩添丁 《冰川冻土》2000,22(1):65-72

根据青海都兰地区树木年轮样本,建立了上前我国最长的年轮年表序列（１８３５a）,系 统地与所在地区气候资料进行了综合分析。通过响应函数计算得出,该年表对温度因子的反映更为第三一些。在响应面分析中发现,温度、降水与年轮宽度的关系呈现出随温度和降水的不同而不同。在温度低而降水量少的情况下,其线性相关性明显;但在温度较高和降水量较多时,树轮与两要素间的关系就显得不明显。另外,还对该年表玮秋季平均温度的关系进  相似文献   

Climate sensitivity to changes in land surface characteristics     

Jacob O. Sewall  Lisa Cirbus Sloan  Matthew Huber  Scott Wing 《Global and Planetary Change》2000,26(4)

Using a recently developed global vegetation distribution, topography, and shorelines for the Early Eocene in conjunction with the Genesis version 2.0 climate model, we investigate the influences that these new boundary conditions have on global climate. Global mean climate changes little in response to the subtle changes we made; differences in mean annual and seasonal surface temperatures over northern and southern hemispheric land, respectively, are on the order of 0.5°C. In contrast, and perhaps more importantly, continental scale climate exhibits significant responses. Increased peak elevations and topographic detail result in larger amplitude planetary 4 mm/day and decreases by 7–9 mm/day in the proto Himalayan region. Surface temperatures change by up to 18°C as a direct result of elevation modifications. Increased leaf area index (LAI), as a result of altered vegetation distributions, reduces temperatures by up to 6°C. Decreasing the size of the Mississippi embayment decreases inland precipitation by 1–2 mm/day. These climate responses to increased accuracy in boundary conditions indicate that “improved” boundary conditions may play an important role in producing modeled paleoclimates that approach the proxy data more closely.  相似文献   

The cosmological dependence of galactic specific angular momenta     

Vincent Eke  †  George Efstathiou  Lisa Wright 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2000,315(2):L18-L22

Hydrodynamical simulations of galaxy formation in spatially flat cold dark matter (CDM) cosmologies with and without a cosmological constant (Λ) are described. A simple star formation algorithm is employed and radiative cooling is allowed only after redshift z =1 so that enough hot gas is available to form large, rapidly rotating stellar discs if angular momentum is approximately conserved during collapse. The specific angular momenta of the final galaxies are found to be sensitive to the assumed background cosmology. This dependence arises from the different angular momenta contained in the haloes at the epoch when the gas begins to collapse and the inhomogeneity of the subsequent halo evolution. In the Λ-dominated cosmology, the ratio of stellar specific angular momentum to that of the dark matter halo (measured at the virial radius) has a median value of ∼0.24 at z =0. The corresponding quantity for the Λ=0 cosmology is over three times lower. It is concluded that the observed frequency and angular momenta of disc galaxies pose significant problems for spatially flat CDM models with Λ=0 but may be consistent with a Λ-dominated CDM universe.  相似文献   

The use of proxy chemical records in Coral skeletons to ascertain past environmental conditions in Florida Bay     

Peter Koenraad Swart  Genevieve Healy  Lisa Greer  Michael Lutz  Amel Saied  Daniel Anderegg  Richard E. Dodge  David Rudnick 《Estuaries and Coasts》1999,22(2):384-397

This paper will discuss the use of chemical proxies in coral skeletons to reconstruct the history of salinity (from the δ¹⁸O of the skeleton) and nutrients in the water (from the δ¹³C) in Florida Bay between 1824 and 1994. Monthly salinity and water temperature data collected since 1989 were used to establish a correlation between salinity, temperature, and the δ¹⁸O of the skeleton of the coralSolenastrea bournoni from Lignumvitae Basin in Florida Bay. This relationship explains over 50% of the variance in the δ¹⁸O of the skeleton. Assuming that interannual variations in the temperature of the water are small, we have applied this relationship to the δ¹⁸O measured in the coral skeleton collected from Lignumvitae Basin which has a record between 1824 and 1993. These data provide a revised estimate of salinity variation in Lignumvitae Basin for the period when historical records for salinity were not available, and show that the highest salinity events occurred in the past 30 yr. Using the relationships between the salinity in Lignumvitate Basin and other basins, obtained using a modern dataset, we are able to estimate ranges in salinity for other portions of Florida Bay. Skeletons of specimens of the coral speciesSiderastrea radians collected from other areas of Florida Bay show similar patterns in the δ¹⁸O over the past 10 yr, indicating that corals in most portions of Florida Bay are recording salinity variations in their skeletons and therefore support the idea that salinity variations in different portions of Florida Bay can be related. Fluorescence analysis of the coral from Lignumvitae Basin shows a large change in the magnitude of the 10-yr signal coincident with the construction of the railway, confirming that this event had a significant impact upon Florida Bay. The δ¹³C of the coral skeletons reveals a long-term history of the oxidation of organic material, fixation of carbon by photosynthesis (algal blooms), and the intrusion of marine water into the bay. Since the construction of the railway from Miami to Key West there has been a long-term decrease in the δ¹³C of the coral skeleton from Lignumvitae Basin, suggesting the increased oxidation of organic material in this area. This decrease in δ¹³C appears to have reached a minimum value around 1984 and has increased since this time in the western portions of Florida Bay. The increase may be related to the algal blooms prevalent in the area or alternatively could result from intrusion of more marine water. In the eastern areas, a small increase in the δ¹⁸C between 1984 and 1988 was followed by further decline suggesting more oxidation of organic material. We have also attempted to use the concentration of barium in the coral skeleton as a proxy indicator of the nutrient status in Florida Bay.  相似文献